Orderbook Offering An Echo Of The Distant Past

Apr 23, 2018

The shipping markets are renowned for their volatility but today there is one aspect of the industry where the last cycle has taken 20 years. The orderbook expressed as a percentage of the existing fleet, a widely used statistic, is basically back where it was twenty years ago, following a very long cycle indeed, and the trajectory in the meantime is well worth a closer examination.

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Nothing Changes?

A lot can change in 20 years. Back in April 1998, the global fleet stood at 0.5bn GT compared to 1.3bn GT today, and global seaborne trade that year totalled 5.6bn tonnes compared to 11.6bn tonnes in 2017. However, one of shipping’s key orderbook statistics has not changed too much, and give or take is back where it was 20 years ago. At the start of April 2018 the number of ships on order stood equivalent to 3.7% of the existing fleet, the lowest figure on record over the last 20 years, whilst in GT capacity terms, the orderbook stood at 10.8% of the existing fleet, almost back to the 10.7% seen last in mid-1999 (and briefly in September last year). Although the orderbook figures are much bigger in absolute terms (141.9m GT on order today compared to 61.0m GT in April 1998), today’s orderbook in relative terms looks historically low.

The Best And Worst Of Times

In the intervening period, the orderbook has not been a case of major volatility, but rather more like a long cycle with a big upward trend followed by an equally large downward one (see graph). The 2000s saw the great ordering boom with an average of 106m GT per annum ordered 2003-08, before the onset of the global financial crisis. This saw the orderbook increase to its peak at 51.4% of the fleet in Sep-08. But ordering slowed following the crash, and continuing deliveries (despite some slippage and cancellation) started to erode the orderbook; 90m GT per annum was delivered in the period 2009-13. This was then of course compounded by generally more limited ordering in the post-downturn period. In the years 2009-17 an average of 60m GT per annum was ordered; that is almost 40% less than the average 2003-08.

Back To The Future

The obvious question is when might the next cycle begin, or could this orderbook statistic go even lower? Well, taking into account projected deliveries in 2018 of around 55m GT, if contracting continued at the run rate of the first quarter of the year (12.2m GT ordered, across 192 ships), without accounting for any cancellation, the orderbook would end the year at below 10.5% of the projected fleet in GT terms, for the first time since 1996. The headline orderbook statistics may not have changed much over 20 years, but the financing and shipyard capacity environments (and the global fleet) certainly have, providing the backdrop to an orderbook still slimming in relative terms.

Long Cycles

So, lots has changed in two decades, but in shipping there’s at least one metric that looks very similar to 20 years ago. Shipping generally offers speculators plenty of volatility to manage, but for long-term trend spotters it isn’t immune to some very long cycles too. Have a nice day.

Source: Clarksons

Source from : hellenicshippingnews

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ƬͼƬ ŮƬ߹ۿ ƬСС˵ Ƭ˽ mp3 ƬƵµַ Ƭȫ Ƭ Ƭӳǽ Ƭվ ҿ첥Ƭվ Ƭhushi ƬЩ ƬС˵ Ƭ鲻Խ ˭֪Ƭվ ƬƬ Ƭd Ƭؼ Ƭַ Ƭձ ƬƬ ±ϼƬ߹ۿ ҶƬƵ Ƭ пƬվӰ ŮƬվ ƬӰ Ƭͨ Ƭƿ÷߹ۿ СӰƬ޿첥 ձƬ Ƭ Ƭվÿ첥ͼƬ ƬӰվ ƬŮԱ ƬŮЩ Ƭ߿ ͨƬ Ƭ򲻿 ŮƬ Ƭҳ ƬӰ ĹƬ ƬҶŮĿԹۿ Ƭַ¹ Ƭר ƬӾ Ƭַ Ƭ Ů˼ ձƬ qvod Ƭ ձƬôĵ ĹƬԱ 첥ƬҰ Ƭ Ƭǿ ҿƬֻ Ƭֻ ձƬŮ ɫƬ첥 Ƭַ ƬǿӰ ƬֻƵ Ƭ ƬߵӰ򲻿 ƬͼƬվ Ƭ ƬŮľ Ƭصַַ ƬӰ Ƭ ɫƬ Ƭ߲ ձƬCOM Ƭſ Ƭ Ƭÿ ƬɫƵ ɫƬ߹ۿ򲻿 ֻƬӰ Ƭ ƬӰ ƬַƵ ƬƵƬ ɫƬʲô Ƭĸվû ƬַƬַ ˭ƬվCOM ÿƬַCOM Ƭôĵ ƬƵ ˭ƬĵӰվѽ ƬվǶ ƬͼƬ ƬӰȫٷ Ƭɫ ҿ첥Ƭ Ƭ ŷƬС˵ Ƭ Ƭȫ Ƭ3gp װƬ ƬӰվµַ պƬaƬ Ƭ Ƭ ɫƬ߹ۿ Ƭȥ Ƭվ ŮƬӰ Ƭ ɫƬ Ƭ ʫƬ߹ۿ Ƭf Ƭŵ ƬȫӰ ӰƬƻ ɫƬӰ պƬ߹ۿ ŷƬĿ¼ȫ Ƭַȥ ƬӰ Ƭ߹ۿַ ̨ƬŮ˼ ̨ƬƵ Ƭǿ ձƬ첥 첥ƬŮ ƬɫѸ ձƬѹۿ ɫƬСӰС˵ Ƭµַ Ƭ ſƬ߹ۿ ɫƬСӰ ƬŮ˼ ƬӰ ̨Ƭ 첥Ƭվ Ƭɫ߹ۿ δﻪƬȫ װƬ Ƭȫ Ƭ ɫƬ ޶ƬƵ Ƭŷ ûƬַ ƬƵ Ƭձ ˭Ƭַ ɫƬӰۿ Ƭ Ƭ Ƭµַ Ƭվ ƬѵӰ Ƭ վ ɫƬӰ ҶƬЩ Ƭҳʱ߹ۿ ƬƵ Ƭ ƬɫƵ Ƭ߹ۿ ƬӰ Ƭȫ Ƭ睵 Ƭǿ鰸Ӱ Ƭ ɫƬwwwyy555 ƬӰƵ Ƭ޽Ӱ ƬͼƬ ƬӰ ŷƬǸ ƬƬ йƬӰ ƬĻǷŪ˳˵ ƬӰ ˼ƬɫС˵ ƬƬȫ ƬʬƬ ޲ƬӰ Ƭ Ѹ 첥ƬӰ Ƭxiapshuo Ƭɫ װƬCOM Ƭ Ƭַ ԾƬӰ Ƭ Ƭ ƬӰ ձƬҩԼ Ƭվ޶ ŮƬӰ иƬԱӰ ƬѸ ƬƵ Ƭҳʱ ̺ƬӰ ƬԱ ƬӰ Ƭ߲ Ƭ߹ۿ ƬӰ ƬͼƬ Ƭ Ƭ ƬƵ Ƭ첥Ӱ Ƭdownload ʩƬֻ Ƭ ƬߵӰС˵ ƬӰ Ƭۿվ ƬߵӰµַ ˭֪Ƭվ ƬƬȫ Ƭ첥 ƬƬ Ƭȫؿ첥 װƬ߿ ˿Ƭ װƬ߲ Ƭ ʮƬŮ ߿Ƭվѵ ͨƬٷ δﻪƬ߹ۿ ƬͼƬ ƬƬӰ Ƭħ Ƭ װƬЩ Ƭ԰ ƬΪ ƬƬӰַ 첥Ƭѿ첥 Ƭ߹ۿ Ƭ߹ۿ Ƭ ѩƬع ձƬС˵ ̨ƬŮԱ ƬӰȫ ƬŲҰ2صַ Ƭ˽ ˼ƬƵ װƬ Ѹ ˭Ƭվ صƬվ ƬӰԺַ ƬӰӰ ƬӰ ŷƬӰ ɫƬӰ ̨ƬƵ Ƭ߹ۿ ƬС˵ Ƭվ ƬӰԺվ ±ƬӰ Ƭ߹ۿ Ƭqvod ƬƵ Ƭ첥 ҶƬȫ ƬŮ˵ Ƭ 첥Ƭַ ɩƬaaaӰ ۿƬվ Ƭ¥ ƬվƬ ̨ƬŮ 첥Ƭ߿ Ƭվ Ƭʲô ƬӰ δﻪƬר Ƭַ ŷƬǿ첥 Ƭ߹ۿ Ƭ aƬ Ƭmp4 ӰƬ첥 ƬӰ 뿴Ƭô Ƭнд ˭Ƭվ ƬŮ ƬӰƬӰ ȥƬͼƬ Ƭɫ Ƭվÿ첥ٷվ ƬЩ պƬƵ ŷƬۿ ƬߵƵ ƬѵӰ ƬӰվٷ ƬƵ ƬӰ Ƭ ƬӰͼƬ ɫƬֻ ƬƲ 뿴Ƭԣ Ƭ첥COMƬ첥ͼƬ Ƭһ ƬŮ ƿ÷Ƭ Ƭ߿ ɫƬ ƬƵ Ƭַʲô ޱƬƵ Ƭȥ ձƬԱ ƬӰ ޱƬӰ ƬƵ ƬַǶ Ƭ3gp Ƭ򲻿Ƭʲô Ƭ˽ Ƭֻ ƬӰ 첥ƬƵŮƬ ƬӰ ̨Ƭȥ Ƭ첥µַ Ƭµַ ƬӰ ƬƵ ƬΪ Ƭַ ƬƬվ Ƭ￴ пƬվ ˼ƬɫͼƬ Ƭȫ Ƭ ƬͼƬ ƬӰվ ½ƬƵ Ƭѹۿ Ƭȫ Ƭ Ƭɫ Ƭdvd Ƭɫۿ Ƭ Ƭվ ̨Ƭȫ Ƭ ҹƬƵۿ Ƭrmvb ƬĿ첥Ӱµַ ƬԱǷ Ƭۿֻ ĹƬŮ ӰƬӰ Ƭ ۿ Ƭ ߹ۿ Ƭǿ ۲Ƭ ƬΪ ƬĵӾ ƬɫӰӰ Ƭ ƬЩ Ƭصַµַ Ƭ ֲƬ߹ۿ Ƭ˹Ů ձƬ Ƭ߹ۿ Ƭ첥 Ƭ Ƭڰ칫ҵĴ򲻿 ɫƬ߲ ƬɫӰ 俵ƬƵ ½ƬЩ ƬӰµַ Ƭ13Ƶ Ƭ йƬӰ򲻿 ÿƬ ƬɫƬ ƬЩͼƬ ƬѸ Ƭտ Ƭ ŷƬӰ Ƭ ŷƬǹٷվ Ƭ Ƭ¹ odƬµַ պƬַ ƬӰ ƬŮħ Ƭֹ δﻪƬ߿ Ƭ 첥Ƭ Ƭṵ Ƭĸ ƬӰȥ δﻪƬ 俵ƬӰ Ƭַ첥 ӰƬѿ ƬվӰ ƬƬӰ򲻿 ƬӰ ƬƵ Ƭȥ Ƭ ƬӰַ Ƭվ첥 Ƭ￴ Ƭַ ѿƬַ ƬƵ ƬBT Ƭഺ Ƭַ Ƭַ ½ƬŮ˼ ƬͼƬ ƬСӰվ ĹƬĺŮ Ƭɫ ƬŮ Ƭɫٷվ ƬӰ ƬӰ ƬӰ ӰƬظ СӰƬ޹ Ƭ߹ۿ Ƭַ Ƭ첥ӰС˵ ˭Ƭַ Ƭ ƬЩ ԾƬ ƬͥǿѵӰ ̨Ƭȫ ҶƬ鲻Խ Ƭ߹ۿ Ƭ첥 ձƬȥ Ƭַµַ ɫƬɫƬͼƬ Ƭ߲ Ƭ߿ ӰƬֻ 첥ƬӰվֻ ƬӰվ ƬӰ Ƭ3gpѸ װƬ첥 ձƬ Ƭ˽ ˼ƬͼƬ Ƭ Ƭ ȫ ɫƬӰµַ ̺ƬӰ Ƭ첥 Ƭȫ Ƭַ δﻪƬӰȫ ƬӰȫƵ ձƬ߹ۿ Ƭm Ƭ߹ۿ Ƭʲô ƬӰӰ Ƭq Ƭ첥 Ƭѹۿ ƬеavŮ Ƭۿ ƬӰ ɫƬӰ ʩƬͼƬ Ƭ߲ Ƭվ ձƬȫ ŷƬҹ Ƭ̬ͼƬ ܿƬַ Ƭ߿ ŷƬѸ mp5Ƭ Ƭ Ƭ ˭֪Ƭַ Ƭƿ÷첥ۿ Ƭƿ÷ ƬƵƬ ƬѸ йƬƵ Ƭ߿ձ Ƭ Ƭ ˭Ƭ ƬƷ Ƭ߹ۿ ƬѲ ƬӰ Ƭվ첥 Ƭ3gp ƬӰ Ƭ ŷƬ ƬӵӰ Ƭȫ߹ۿ Ƭ »ƬӰ ƬQVOD Ƭ ƬB³¹ϣͼ ƬԴ Ƭ ƬƬڹٷվ ƬƵ 2Ƭ߹ۿſƵ Ƭ׼ĦԺŮȫ׷ Ƭصַ ƬCOM Ƭ ƬBT Ƭ Ƭɫ򲻿Ƭɫ鶯Ƭ Ƭصַ Ƭ߹ۿ Ƭ Ƭͼ ƬӰ̰ Ƭعۿ Ƭs Ƭվ Ƭȫ Ƭɫ ƬԱͯ Ƭصַµַ ƬЩС˵ Ƭߵȥ ƬȥĿȫ Ƭ ±ϼƬعۿ ƬŮѪ Ƭ߿ͼƬ Ƭ ƬȥƬƵ Ƭ첥Ӱ Ƭ Ƶ ƬӰ ɫƬվȥ Ƭߵ򲻿 ƬƬ Ƭ߿ Ƭ Ƭ ƬͼƬ Ƭ ձƬƵ ƬߵӰ ƬӰȫʲô ˭ƬӰ Ƭй ҶƬЩ ƬС˵ uƬЩ Ƭ߹ۿٷ ֻƬ Ƭվÿ첥վ Ƭ Ƭµַ ƬƵͼƬ ƬƵֻ Ƭ ŷƬƬ ɫƬ Ƭ ҿƬ¹ ձƬͼƬ ƬƬ ˼Ƭ ˼ƬƵ Ƭտ Ƭ Ӱ ƬӰ Ƭĸ ˭Ƭվ Ƭ Ƭ Ƭۿ Ƭַ ŷƬվ Ƭֿ첥 ÿƬЩ Ƭa ƬӰ߹ۿ Ƭȫ Ƭ߿Ƭ Ƭ ŷƬƵ ̨Ƭȫ Ѹ Ƭƿ÷ۿ 俵ƬЩ ߿Ƭ޹Ӱȫ Ƭصµַ 첥ƬӰվվ δﻪƬӰ Ƭʲô Ƭ Ƭ첥 Ƭ Ƭying uƬ߲ Ƭѵַ¹ ѵƬ ˭ƬС˵ѵ ƬͼƬ Ƭ첥ӰӰ Ƭ ƬŮ Ƭ ˼ƬӰ Ƭ Ƭ ƬCOM ձƬ ƬӰ ˼Ƭɫͼ Ƭ֮붯ͼƬ Ƭ岥԰ȫƵ Ƭ߹ۿ Ƭַ Ƭκϼ ƬӰ Ƭվ 첥Ƭֻ Ƭ̳ Ƭµַ Ƭϣ ±Ƭ߿ Ƭ鲥 Ƶ ɫƬ߿С˵ Ƭַ ̨Ƭƿ÷ ƬͼƬ ŷƬ߹ۿ ½ƬѸ ƬŮѪ Ƭȫ Ƭѹۿ ˼Ƭƿ÷ ƿ÷Ƭ߹ۿ ƬɫӰվ ƬѸ ƬۿƵ ȥƬӰ Ƭ4ɫ µƬַ ƬСѨ ƬӰɫƬƵ ƬеĿ ɵƬ Ƭ Ƭ߹ۿ Ƭ Ƭ߹ۿ ˭Ƭַ ûƬ Ƭɫ齫Ѹ Ƭַµַ Ƭ ƬӰЩ Ƭ̩ Ƭٷվ ƬƵȫ Ƭһҳ Ƭһɫ Ƭƿ÷߹ۿ Ƭɫ ձƬdvd Ƭ鹦 Ƭ˽mp3 Ƭۿַ򲻿 װƬѸ Ƭصַ ƬվǶվ Ƭɫ ƬƵڴϷͷ ѵƬ첥 ƬӰ ƬӰ Ƭ Ƭ¹ ƬӰ Ƭ3gp ɫƬ߿Ƶ ҶƬƵ Ƭ պƬֻ Ƭȫظ ƬӰƵ װƬѲ ½Ƭ߹ۿ ̨ƬЩ ƬվǶٿ첥 ɫ Ƭ Ƭ Ƭ Ƭ򲻿 ձƬܽȥ Ƭ׿ Ƭȥ ƬߵӰС˵ ƬӰ ƬĿ첥Ӱ¹ ɫƬͼƬ ƬۿַС˵ Ƭ ƬɫӰӳ Ƭ ƬӰ򲻿 첥Ƭ ձƬƬվ ɫƬվ Ƭ߹ۿ Ƭĵ Ƭ ƬQVOD ƬַӰ ŷƬ Ƭٷվ ƬƬ ƬCOM Ƭֱ ƬͼƬ ±ϼƬ߲ Ƭ֮ɫƬ Ƭվַ ԾƬ ɫƬ߹ۿ Ƭַ Ƭ ƬƬӰµַ ƬЩѵ Ƭĸÿ ƬӰµַ Ƭ ƬձŷƬ ˭Ƭվַ ˼Ƭַ mp4Ƭ˶ ̨ƬͼƬ ɫƬ ԸƬӰ ƬŮ Ƭô ƬվCOM δﻪƬ ƬӰ Ƭɫվ Ƭ ƬŮ ƬַCOM Ƭۿ Ƭַ ͵ƬϵƬ ƬƬȫ ƬŮ˺͹ͼƬ ƬƵ Ƭ˿ ɫƬ͵ ӰƬַ ƬƬ򲻿 ȥƬƵ ƬŮ Ƭ ؽƬ ƬС װƬ Ƭڹۿ ƬƭԴҩ Ƭվÿ첥COM ƬƵ Ƭƿ÷ Ƭͼ첥 aviƬӰ Ƭ ѵƬٷվ Ƭȫ ˼Ƭƿ÷ Ƭձ ƬѸ Ƭַ 첥Ƭڷ Ƭվ ɫƬվ첥 Ƭ ׿ Ƭ߲ ҪƬӰ δﻪƬЩ Ƭ򲻿 ִƬ߹ۿ ƬǸվȥµַ ƬԿ ƬӰ Ƭվ򲻿 Ƭ ëƬ Ƭ 뿴ƬӰ ƬӰȹ Ƭ Ƭɫ ƬۿַƬ Ƭۿ Ƭվ ƬƲݺ 첥Ƭû йƬŮ ƬƵ ŷƬ߲ ƬɫӰ ɫƬٶӰ ɫƬֻ Ƭƻ ƬС ƬӰҹ ߿Ƭվ ѵ ƬԽµַ ձƬվ ƬҹӰ ƬҶ Ƭҩ ƬӰ Ƭѧ Ƭ Ƭ Ƭ ĹƬ Ƭɫ ƬӰ ɫƬۿ ƬƬ߲ ƬӾƿ÷ ƷƬͼ Ƭ°ĵӰ Ƭ첥ӰƬ Ƭ йƬĵӰ Ƭ󼯺 ƬӰ ƬϷ ƬЩ ɫƬѹۿ ƬĿ첥Ӱֻ ƬӰ ƬƬ ̨Ƭ Ƭ߹ۿ ƬŮԽͼƬ Ƭ߹ۿ ƬӰƿ÷ Ƭ ձ ƬӰ Ƭ ƬС ƬӰۿ Ƭ¿ 俵Ƭվ ˼ƬӰ Ƭ ձƬ ̨ƬӰԺ Ƭ֮ⷿ Ƭ ƬƬ ձƬŮ Ƭ Ƭ ̨ƬŮӼ Ƭ Ƭվۿ ҶƬ Ӱ Ƭ¼ Ƭۿ Ƭ߹ۿ ƬͼƬ ƬŮԱ Ƭ첥ٷվ Ƭĵ 첥ƬվͼƬ ƬbtӴȫ Ƭۿַ ̨Ƭ Ƭַַ Ƭ Ƭƿ÷ Ƭعۿ ƬЩ ƬƵ Ƭ԰ mp4Ƭ ͨƬͼƬ Ƭ͵Ů ±ƬƵ ձƬŮ˭ Ƭصַٷ Ƭ߿ ɫƬƵ Ƭվ Ƭд ƬƬɫӰ ŷƬɫ ƬϹۿ պƬ Ƭվ Ƭר ۵ƬӰ Ƭȫ ɫƬСӰֻ Ƭɫֻ ƬƵ Ƭȫصַ Ƭվ ŷƬԽƵ Ƭۿ Ƭվ ƬַʲôƬַվ Ƭ Ƭַ ƬŮ ƬիƵ Ƭqvod ƬƬ߹ۿ ƬӰԺʲô ҿƬƵ Ƭ Ƭַ Ƭ߲ ѵƬµַ ƬԴ ƬƼ ԿƬվ Ƭ߹ۿƵ ƬκϼBT Ƭ ƬЩƵ Ƭκϼ Ƭ Ƭɫ ŷƬ Ƭ˭վ ̨Ƭvideo ƬԴ ƬƬ ƬƲݺ ƬӰ Ƭ߲ Ƭصַȫ ɫ Ƭ Ƭ ƬЩӰ δﻪƬר Ƭ򲻿 Ƭ 뿴Ƭô Ƭվ ƬƵ Ƭ Ƭ Ƭѿ ŷƬ Ƭվ Ƭַ ߿ƬƵվ ƬȫĿ¼ ɫƬӰ ̺ƬЩ ȥƬ ±Ƭۿ Ƭ Ƭ԰ Ƭῴ ѸƬ Ƭ ƬЩӰ Ƭë Ƭdvd ŷƬŮԱ ޶Ƭվ 16¥Ƭ߲ ƬձŮ Ƭ ɫƬַ ձƬŮԱ ƬӰվ ƬӰԺٷ Ƭ 俵ƬЩ ̨ƬͼƬٷ ձƬܸ Ƭֻ Ƭ Ƭdvd ƬӰԺ ƬͼƬ Ƭʲô Ƭȫ522 ƬվЩ Ƭصַ ˭ƬվͼƬ ǿƬ߹ۿ Ƭbt ̨ƬƬ Ƭ Ƭվַ ƬӰ߿ Ƭ ̯ ƬվС˵ պƬȥ 첥Ƭȫ ƬƬӰ ƬЩӰǺƬĿ Ƭ첥 Ƭ ƬƵ ҶƬȫ Ƭ ƬƬ ŷƬbt ɫƬ߹ۿµַ ̺Ƭbt Ƭ ƬԻвô Ƭ Ƭ 첥ƬվƵ ƬƵ ƬǸվȥѹٷվ ƬԽƵ ֣Ƭ Ƭ̽ Ƭɫ Ƭ߹ۿٷվ пƬο ƬŮԱ Ƭⰲװۿ Ƭվ