A very impressive amount of dry bulk vessels were chartered last week, as demand for iron ore, coal, grain, and minor bulk cargoes has been quite firm. 134 dry bulk vessels were chartered in the spot market, which was the most chartered since the Week Ending March 9, 2012. Over half of the vessels were chartered to haul cargo from either Australia, Indonesia, or the US Gulf. Concerns about low Mississippi River water levels have been alleviated for now, as a healthy amount of vessels are being chartered to haul cargoes from the US Gulf.

Trouble remains in the United States and prospects for overall global grain trade however. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its 2012/13 global grain trade forecast to 285.7 million tons, 1.7 million tons (-0.5%) less than its previous forecast of 287.4 million tons made a month ago. Compared with the 340.6 million tons of grain estimated to have been exported during 2011/12, 2012/13 grain trade is now expected to decrease by 54.9 million tons (-16%).

The USDA’s forecast has been lowered from its previous forecast largely due to lower expectations for coarse grain exports. 2012/13 global coarse grain exports are now expected to total only 116 million tons. In December, the USDA forecast that 2012/13 global coarse grain exports would total 118 million tons.

The coarse grain forecast has been lowered primarily due a decrease in coarse grain exports expected from the United States. The USDA now expects that 2012/13 US coarse grain exports will end up totaling 26 million tons. In December, the USDA forecast that US coarse grain exports would total 32mt. Considerably less coarse grain is expected to be exported from the United States now, as domestic US coarse grain consumption is increasing. This comes at an inopportune time, as global grain trade prospects outside of the United States also remain relatively bleak.