【独家栏目】

Chinese demand for imported thermal coal cargoes has remained low during the last few weeks.  Only 3 vessels were chartered to ship thermal coal to China this week, which was the same low amount as a week ago.  In more bullish times, as many as 15 to 20 vessels are routinely chartered to haul imported thermal coal cargoes to China each week.

在前几周内中国对热能煤的需求持续走低。这周只有三艘船被租赁用来运送热能煤前往中国，这种情况和一周前的情况类似。在上涨期时，每周有多大15到20艘的船舶被租赁来托运进口煤前往中国。

Chinese demand for imported thermal coal has stayed low due to three main factors: a large amount of coal has remained stockpiled at power plants; a large amount of coal has remained stockpiled at major coal ports; and hydropower production has continued to surge. 

目前中国对进口热能煤的需求持续走低主要有三个因素：大量的煤炭在电力厂持续积压；大量的煤炭在主要的煤炭港口持续积压；水力发电量持续增长。

For the remainder of this month, hydropower production will continue to surge and will put more pressure on demand for thermal coal.  Hydropower production is then expected to start to decrease in September.  Chinese hydropower production traditionally peaks in July or August of every year due to a seasonal surge in rainfall, and then declines during the following months.

在该月未来的日子里，水利发电量将会继续激增，同时会对热能煤的需求带来压力。水利发电量预计在九月份下降。由于季节性降水的增加，通常中国水利发电量的每年高峰值出现在7月份或者八月份，然后在接下来的几个月下降。

Chinese demand for imported thermal coal cargoes will ultimately find support once hydropower production begins declining in September.  Demand will also find support due to a recent decline in Chinese coal stockpiles.  As of August 10, coal stockpiles at China’s major power plants totaled 85.6 million tons, which is a decrease of 7.5 million tons (-8%) from the record 93.1 million tons that was stockpiled in early June.

一旦水利发电量在九月份开始下降，中国对热能煤的需求将最终得到支持。由于最近中国煤炭库存量下降，煤炭需求仍然能得到支持。截止8月10号，中国主要电力厂的煤炭库存总量为8560万吨，这比6月初的存储量9310万吨的记录减少了750万吨，下降了百分之八。

In addition to Chinese power plant coal stockpiles declining, Chinese coal port stockpiles have also recently come under a large amount of pressure.  Today, stockpiles at Qinhuangdao (which is China’s largest coal port and acts as the loading port for about 40% of China’s coastal coal shipments) total 6.7 million tons.  This is 600,000 tons (-8%) less than was stockpiled a week ago and 2.2 million tons (-23%) less than was stockpiled two months ago. 

除了中国电力厂煤炭存储量下降外，中国煤炭港口的库存量也同样面临大量的压力。今天，秦皇岛作为中国最大的煤炭港口和中国沿海煤炭运输约40%的装货港，它的存储总量为670万吨。这比一周前的存储量减少了60万吨，下降了约为百分之八；比前两个月的存储量减少了220万吨，下降了百分之二十三。

Due to Qinhuangdao’s role as serving as China’s major coastal coal transshipment hub, officials normally strive to keep at least 7 million tons of coal stockpiled at the port at all times.  In the upcoming weeks, demand for imported thermal coal cargoes is poised to find a small amount of support.  In September, demand is likely to find even greater support.

由于秦皇岛作为中国沿海主要煤炭中转枢纽，政府通常总是努力保持至少7万吨煤炭在港口库存。在未来几周，进口热能煤的需求将找到少量的支持。在9月份，需求是有可能得到更大的支持。