Brazil’s rice exports in 2013-14 are forecast to rebound to around 1.2 million tons, up about 50% from an estimated 800,000 tons in 2012-13. Exports in 2012-13 are down about 18% from the 970,000 tons exported in 2011-12, and almost 50% lower than 2010-11 exports, said the USDA Post in Brazil. It says that rice exports by the country were hurt last year due to high prices, and may see a rebound in 2013-14 due to higher supplies.

However, high rice prices will boost rice production the country this year, says the Post. Rice production in Brazil in 2013-14 is expected to grow to around 8.5 million tons, up about 4% from around 8.16 million tons in 2012-13, helped mainly by increased plantings in key rice growing areas. The USDA Post says that rice acreage in Brazil is expected to grow to around 2.52 million hectares in 2013-14, up about 5% (mostly in Rio Grande do Sul and in Mato Grosso) from around 2.4 million hectares in the previous year.

Rice prices reached record levels in 2012-13 due to limited supply and strong export demand. Prices have declined steadily in the past few weeks due to the arrival of the harvest season, but the Post says prices will continue to remain high and help improve rice production this year. It says, “The rate of price decline has been much less than in previous years during harvest season. This suggests that high prices will prevail for the remainder of 2013.”

Brazil also imports rice. The Post expects rice imports to grow slightly from around 700,000 tons in 2012-13 to about 750,000 tons in 2013-14. Under political pressure, the government is considering capping rice imports from Mercosul countries (which account for over 90% of annual rice imports by Brazil) at 800,000 tons. Significantly, rice imports from Vietnam have grown last year to around 20,000 tons from small quantities in the past.

Rice consumption in Brazil is on the decline due to shift in diet associated with economic growth in the country. Rice consumption in Brazil in 2013-14 is forecast to decline to 7.8 million tons, down about 1.3% from the previous year’s 7.9 million tons.

Source: Oryza