Moody's Investors Service has changed its outlook for the US coal industry to stable from negative, the rating agency says in a new report, "US Coal Industry Outlook Stabilizes as Business Conditions Hit Bottom." Moody's does not expect industry fundamentals to deteriorate further over the next 12 to 18 months, though business conditions remain very weak.

"The stable outlook reflects our expectation that over the next year or so coal-fired power plants will capture roughly 40% of US electricity generation, up from 37% in 2012," says Vice President-Senior Analyst, Anna Zubets-Anderson. "Coal inventories had fallen to roughly 164 million short tons by July this year, so we expect modest improvements in thermal coal production and pricing next year."

Sustained natural gas prices will prop up demand for the thermal coal used in power production through mid-2014 to early 2015, Anna Zubets-Anderson says, while supply rationalization should help stabilize prices for metallurgical coal, which is used in steelmaking. Nonetheless, the US coal industry has little room left to cut costs, and will earn lower EBITDA in 2013 than in 2012 due to lower prices, before EBITDA flattens in 2014.

Coal producers in the Powder River and Illinois basins will continue to capture market share at the expense of Central Appalachian producers, where high mining costs and competition from natural gas will reinforce a secular decline, Moody's says.

Among companies, low-cost producers such as Cloud Peak Energy Resources and Foresight Energy will benefit the most from higher natural gas and thermal coal prices and higher peak-season coal demand. Central Appalachian producers such as James River Coal, on the other hand, will continue to see pressure on volumes and pricing.

And companies with significant exposure to metallurgical coal, such as Alpha Natural Resources and Walter Energy, will feel pressure from low prices at least though next year. Producers will generate less EBITDA from met coal in 2014 than in 2013, as higher-priced contracts expire.