Highlights of the past month:

• In October the criminal activity against shipping was clearly higher comparing to September. However, the different sources sometimes reveal very different incidents and cases. Even the major official sources like ICC, NSC, ONI, NGA and UKMTO do not seem to have similar opinion or perhaps good cooperation for the sake of safer shipping? Should not be a case. Maybe there is a time to merge the relevant data obtained from all the different sources into one official joint database that would serve the true purpose to assist the security officers and providers to sense the threats better. It is a good time to give the meaning to the comprehensiveness concept written in doctrines of the all mentioned bodies.

• The official reports reveal two serious hijack attempts in near Somalia by a pirate group. The pirate group was later apprehended by Naval forces. Meanwhile Iranian Navy has been reporting at least two successful thwarts in Gulf of Aden that does not show up in official reporting for some reason. That all in sum would make at least four serious incidents in October within Indian Ocean region.

• In West Africa possibly three serious incidents have happened, in one case people got kidnapped, in another security personnel killed.

• There has been also significant robbery rate raise near Indonesia and Malaysia (at least 17 incidents reported). In one instances a chemical tanker’s cargo was robbed in West African style near Malaysia. Unusually high rate of theft and robbery happened in Indian ports.

Summary and recommendations:

• The latest activity on Indian Ocean may indicate the rise of attempts for hijack in near future. Somali pirates have been patient for long time and meanwhile there is no improvement on the land regarding their living standards by honest means. Also as the UN is cutting half of the food aid for two Somali refugee camps in Kenya, that are already under the political fire by local communities, may force tens of thousands people to move back to Somalia where they will be exposed to criminal gangs recruiters. Meanwhile the terror movement Al Shabaab is likely gaining power locally and fills the vacuum of governance. More recruits and not improving living conditions in the region are creating the options and need to surge for more sources of financing the organization. This may include some more pirating attempts and possibly with better tactics and heavier weapons than we have seen so far. Meanwhile the reduced security on vessels will attract the surges and tryouts of the pirates thus it will considerably lower their risks.

• The cargo theft from tanker near Malaysia was something new in the pattern. Will it be new a mode of crime in this region, following the trends of the West African criminals, is too early to assume. However, being able to pull off such an operation so boldly (the tanker was boarded just 20nm off the coast and held in captivity for three days) may indicate the growing ability of such crime mode to be introduced in future again. There are likely needed assets (criminal’s tankers, safe harbors, networks) being created and the great investments need to be covered.

• In any risk area where the sea criminals are operating the good armed security teams are still likely the best assets to deter and repel the pirates. However, once the attempts will get more sophisticated, the ad hoc mixed teams of security guards will not likely provide the protection needed. The vessel owners should be careful who they hire for the job. The teams need to be really capable of protecting the vessel not only to produce the image of such capability.