For the P3 alliance this is the time of ferment. The plan is to turn container service into a prime vintage of unrivaled first-class global service, dependable, all-encompassing, and low cost. The downside is that the competitive review may dilute the effort into plonk or worse, convert it into vinegar.

Predictably, the regulatory review of the P3 proposal to combine the operations of Maersk Line, MSC and CMA-CGM has the carriers on edge, given past actions and the proposed summit of US, European and Asian regulators to examine the P3 proposal.

The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC), which suggested the combine, seems hardly staffed to conduct a worldwide review in a short time.

Recall, though, that the FMC last year investigated whether Prince Rupert, Canada, threatened the port of Seattle because of the US harbor maintenance tax. It was a bit of a fool’s errand since the two ports barely compete at the margin. The FMC typically sides with those worried about competition.

The European Commission has been far more active, but its last act of note was to phase out conferences in the Asia-Europe trades because of shipper complaints about competitive collusion.

The tilt of the Asian authorities is likely coloured by the fact that P3 has no Asian members. The Chinese, in particular, have demonstrated in the Vale iron ore case that it is willing to make up its own rules, if necessary, to protect its home carriers. One rumor has it that the Chinese would like to enlarge P3 to include its carriers, but that would push the market share capacity for the Asia-Europe trade over the 50% mark.

It could be that two shipping consortia with a few outliers is the future of liner shipping, but that seems premature and is dependent on the staying power of various carriers. Economics, not regulators, will determine.

The main argument in P3’s behalf is that it would create improved service for shippers.

With its new ships sliding down the ways, Maersk et al already have a jump in network service. The strength of the argument for improved service is also its weakness; it adds to a competitive squeeze that is expected to last at least three more years due to overcapacity.

Already one pundit has quoted a shipper as hailing P3 as an opportunity to ship with MSC and get Maersk service. Ah, but what if the customer ships with Maersk and gets MSC service?