A semi record-breaking month in October, according to the October statistical report from the Energy Information Administration, released earlier today:
• US net oil import dependence in October was 5.594 million b/d. This is obviously not a record–the US formerly was a total net exporter, way back in the day–but this is the lowest level in the shale era. The previous low was back in February, at 5.992 million b/d. And since comparisons should be made on a month-to-month basis, it should be noted that in October 2005, US net import dependence was 13.354 million b/d. So it’s down on average about 1-million b/d each year for eight years. (That October 2005 figure was the second highest month for US net import dependence.)
• US total petroleum imports were down, but were not a record low. At 9.592 million b/d, they were the third-lowest in the post-shale era. Crude imports of 7.475 million b/d were the third-lowest in the shale era.
• NGL/LPG exports were 678,000 b/d, about 125,000 b/d above the previous record. This is a big number, and as the US NGL logistical system moves to handle exports more efficiently, this number will surely grow.
• Gasoline exports at just under 500,000 b/d were on the high side of recent trends, and were the most since January. But they weren’t a record, which was set back in November 2011 at 626,000 b/d.
• Distillate exports of 1.298 million b/d are on the high side historically, but not a record. Ditto the 567,000 b/d of petroleum coke exports.
• All of that helped add up to total exports of 3.998 million b/d, the highest total ever.
• And US net import dependence certainly didn’t fall because of a decline in consumption. Products supplied were 19.273 million b/d, the fourth consecutive month in excess of 19 million b/d, something the US hasn’t done since the summer of 2010. For a non-summer period, you need to go back to the autumn of 2008 to find four consecutive months more than 19 million b/d.
• With the weekly EIA numbers reporting significant declines in inventories for several weeks now, the October monthly numbers shouldn’t come as a surprise. If October patterns held into November, it’s a combination of big exports plus rising domestic consumption plus a decline in crude imports, offset only partially by rising output. That can only happen by drawing on stocks, and that’s what has been occurring.