Oil-Shipping Routes Lengthen

2014-02-18

A tectonic shift under way in the global oil trade is increasing the average distance traveled by a typical barrel of oil. This is likely to push shipping rates higher and benefit shipping companies as well as shipbuilders.

The U.S. energy boom is largely responsible for the shift, as sharply higher domestic production of oil and gas is moving the country off its perch as the world’s largest oil importer even as Asian appetites for hydrocarbons continue to rise—a good thing for traditional U.S. suppliers, including Latin America and West Africa, who are finding ready customers (much) farther away.

For consumers, longer voyages mean increased fuel costs and freight rates, as the availability of shipping vessels diminishes in line with the increased time tankers are booked to cover extended distances.

A team of analysts from DNB Bank found the average sailing distance for the crude tanker of choice—the very large crude carrier, or VLCC, which measures around three football fields in length and can carry around 2.1 million barrels—reached around 7,500 nautical miles in 2013. That is roughly a third of the distance around the globe, and it is up 9% since 2010.

“[I]t’s nearly three times longer from West Africa to China than to the U.S.,” DNB analyst Petter Haugensaid told The Wall Street Journal, citing the shift in traffic from West Africa as the biggest contributor to the rising average distance.

This is consistent with the tilting of the center of global oil consumption toward the East in what the International Energy Agency has called “a fundamental reordering of global oil trade over the coming decades.” China has already supplanted the U.S. as the world’s biggest oil importer on a monthly basis, and the U.S. Energy Information administration projected in a recent report that China will be the No. 1 net importer for the full year in 2014 with an average of 6.6 million barrels of day versus 5.5 million barrels a day for the U.S.

The IEA, a Paris-based energy watchdog representing oil-consuming countries, has estimated that the U.S.’s share of the overall global trade will decline from 27% currently to 15% in 2035, by which time it projects the global tanker trade will have increased by around 18% as average shipping distances lengthen.

Robert Willmington, operations manager at IHS Maritime, a ship-tracking service, said the trend will be very consequential for the shipping industry, as it will increase freight rates and spur more build orders for VLCCs.

Shipbuilders have already increased their rates for the large tankers by around 10% over the past six months, in line with a surge in orders, Mr. Willmington said. Better freight rates will also help charterers and operators recover from a downturn in the wider shipping industry that has been in the doldrums since 2008.

An examination of import trends for two of Asia’s largest oil consumers, China and India, highlights the changing trade patterns. China’s crude imports from its largest oil suppliers, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait stagnated or declined in 2013, while imports from parts of West Africa, including the Republic of Congo, surged 32%, official data show.

Similarly, India has diversified its oil sources, as it increasingly looks toward distant Latin America, which according to energy consulting firm JBC Energy, increased its share in the South Asian country’s imports to 20% last year from 10% two years earlier. This makes the region the second-largest oil supplier to India after the Middle East. Chinese imports of Latin American crude in the first nine months of 2013 rose 14% compared with the same period in 2011, JBC data show.

“Faced with the loss of their historical export market on the back of the U.S. shale boom, Latin American producers have increasingly set their sights on Asia as an outlet for their production and met a ready market,” JBC said.

India is raising Latin American crude imports even further this year, with supplies flowing in from Mexico, Columbia and Argentina—countries that hadn’t exported barrels to India on a large scale before last month.

The country is also taking shipments from other parts of America. Indian Oil Corp.530965.BY +0.31%, for example, was India’s first-ever recipient of Canadian crude oil late last year.

Source from : Wall Street Journal

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