The liner sector of shipping appears to have the steepest hill to climb to achieve capacity balance over the next few years. That assumption flows from a global shipping fleet growth profile prepared by Global Hunter Securities, a New York brokerage firm, in conjunction with Clarkson’s. The study plotted scheduled deliveries as a percentage of the fleet for the years through 2017.

%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cum.

Crude 1.6 4.8 2.0 3.2 3.2 11.0

Product 2.7 7.3 7.6 3.3 3.3 19.1

LNG 3.7 9.9 7.9 6.8 6.8 31.0

LPG 6.9 6.8 15.3 6.0 6.0 30.9

Dry Bulk 5.9 9.4 6.4 3.9 3.9 21.2

Container 5.6 9.2 8.1 3.7 3.7 22.7

All sectors face substantial deliveries in the near-term, but have different prospects for demand growth to absorb new tonnage.

The liner sector orderbook is skewed toward substantial additions over the next two years at a time when container trade prospects are relatively flat. Container Trade Statistics, in its latest monthly report, projects only limited growth for 2014. Beyond that, issues about China’s growth cloud the demand forecasts. But the fleet is projected to grow at 9.2% this year and 8.1% next year, as the industry retools with larger ships.

In all of shipping, the delivery of container ships 10,000 teu and up has the highest imbedded growth rate - 25% this year and 23% the next.

The crude tanker fleet, by the numbers, offers the best prospects for tightening. This reflects both the recent bear market and the subdued prospect for global ton-miles as US domestic output retards imports.

The high orderbook for the LNG and LPG sectors reflects expectations of substantial growth after 2015.

The LNG market is in the doldrums, but anticipates the opening of new projects that could add 40 mtpa by the end of 2015. And the present fleet contains a substantial number of older ships due for scrapping.

LPG will be profoundly impacted by exports from US refiners engaged in handling the upswing from fracking. US export capacity is expected to rise from 12 mtpa to more than 40 mtpa over the period, with construction front- loaded into 2015.

The movement of refined products, also impacted by US exports due to fracking and the opening of new Midwest refineries, offers more measured growth over the period.

The dry cargo sector, in the midst of a turnaround off the bottom, faces a growth profile similar to containers.