Oil prices rose marginally month-on-month in April, supported by continued tensions between Russia and the Ukraine, supply outages in OPEC and non-OPEC countries and stepped up crude buying as refiners complete seasonal turnarounds. ICE Brent futures were last trading at $109.85/bbl and NYMEX WTI at $102.10/bbl.

Forecast global demand growth for 2014 has been raised marginally since last month’s Report, to 1.32 mb/d, on higher 1Q14 data. Baseline adjustments to 2012 add 0.1 mb/d to the historical average and total demand, now pegged at 92.8 mb/d in 2014.

Global supplies rose 700 kb/d month-on-month to 92.1 mb/d in April, with roughly half of the increase stemming from OPEC producers. Global supplies were 820 kb/d higher than a year earlier, with non-OPEC annual output growth of 1.8 mb/d more than offsetting an OPEC crude oil decline of 960 kb/d.

After hitting five-month lows in March, OPEC crude oil production rebounded by 405 kb/d, to 29.90 mb/d in April. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ for 2H14 was raised by 140 kb/d to 30.7 mb/d.

Global refinery crude throughputs hit a seasonal low in April, estimated at 75.4 mb/d, on plant maintenance and seasonally weak demand. Runs are set to rebound steeply until August as turnarounds unwind and demand increases. Global throughputs are projected to average 76.2 mb/d in 2Q14, 0.4 mb/d lower than in 1Q14.

OECD industry inventories slipped by 2.5 mb in March to 2 570 mb, as a steep drawdown of product stocks partly offset rising crude and feedstock holdings. Preliminary data indicate that OECD commercial stocks surged by 52.1 mb in April, reducing the deficit to the five year average to 79 mb from 110 mb at end March.