ARCTIC shipping, long an expectation of global warmists, is not likely to be much more than it is today, even if the most dire climate change predictions come true, says the Washington-based Arctic Institute.

"Future shipping in the Polar region will mostly consist of seasonal destinational transport, delivering supplies into the Arctic. Apart from these niche opportunities, Arctic Shipping will be unable to compete the world's existing major trade routes," the report said.

In their report, entitled "The Future of Arctic Shipping: A New Silk Road for China?" the authors come out firmly for the negative.

The northern sea route's one selling point is that it is shorter than going through the Malacca Straits and Suez to northern Europe - a 40 per cent reduction in sailing time in the best possible case.

But even export-oriented northern Chinese ports would only save 28 per cent transit time. Hong Kong would only save 10-15 per cent. "Hence only trade orginating from or destined to northern Chinese ports could benefit from the substantial distance saving of Arctic shipping routes," said the report.

"But trade with northern Europe, the region most relevant to Arctic shipping accounts for just 2.9 per cent of China's international trade," the report said.

"By 2030, only four of China top 20 trade partners will be European countries (Germany, UK, France and the Netherlands). Out of the top 10, only trade with Germany could potentially benefit from a shorter more efficient route through the Arctic," said the report.

"A new generation of containerships are about twice the size of existing vessels. As containerships become increasingly larger to take advantage of economies of scale, the draft and beam restrictions would prevent a growing share of the global merchant fleet to transit the northernmost ocean," said the report.

"As in container shipping, economies of scale allow for the transport of raw materials over vast differences at ever decreasing rates. A specialised Arcticmax ships will be unable to compete," said the report given their smaller size, higher fuel burn per box, larger manning scale and the need for ice breaker protection.

"Thus, Arctic shipping routes will not become a new silk road for China." the report's executive summary concludes.