There was good reason why so many analysts’ Capesize outlook for Q4 was so very strong at the start of this year. Brazilian iron ore exports had been set to jump in Q4. Q4 fundamentals have not changed, but lately it seems some analysts have simply forgotten why they were so very bullish for Q4 and are unaware of what is now taking place in the market.

During the last week and a half, a very large amount of capesize vessels have been chartered in the dry bulk market to export Brazilian iron ore cargoes. In addition, Vale reported record iron ore production for Q3 and is expected to produce and export much more iron ore in Q4. Anglo American is now also exporting iron ore from its Minas Rio mine in Brazil.

The capesize Atlantic basin is now very tight (which has lead to great strength in rates) and will become much tighter. This is the reason why Q4 was expected to be so strong. It is important to recognize that Q4 fundamentals have not changed. Strength is coming about a month later than many expected, but two important factors remain: Chinese iron ore imports remain incredibly strong; and Brazilian iron ore production and exports are poised to rise to much higher levels through the end of this year.

Overall, there was good reason why many analysts’ outlook for Q4 were so strong earlier this year. Capesize rates are now finding great strength for good reason, and are likely to see much higher levels this year. The fundamentals for Q4 are shaping out as anticipated. Brazilian iron ore exports are poised to jump much further, and capesize Atlantic basin availability is already very tight.