Platts Analysis of U.S. EIA Data

2015-02-27

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks increased 8.4 million barrels the week ended February 20, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released this week showed.

Analysts surveyed by Platts Monday had expected crude oil stocks to increase 3.7 million barrels.

Crude oil production was 9.285 million barrels per day (b/d), up 5,000 b/d on a weekly basis and 1.2 million b/d higher year over year.

Production rose while refineries processed less crude oil, leading stocks to build to a record 434.1 million barrels.

Amid the ongoing maintenance season, crude oil runs dipped 199,000 b/d to 15.2 million b/d. The refinery utilization rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 87.4% of operable capacity.

Analysts were expecting a decline of 0.4 percentage point.

Imports increased 174,000 b/d the week ended February 20, another factor behind the build. At 7.3 million b/d, imports were about 3% above year-ago levels, but trailed by 12% the average from 2010-2014.

Imports from Canada rose 132,000 b/d to 3.2 million b/d, preliminary estimates showed. Imports from Saudi Arabia were steady, up 54,000 b/d to 961,000 b/d, and imports from Venezuela were 154,000 b/d lower at 753,000 b/d.

By region, the biggest build was seen on the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC), where stocks rose 4.3 million barrels to 214.5 million barrels.

The only district in which stocks fell the week ended February 20 was the Rocky Mountains, which saw a small decline of 40,000 barrels.

Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma — delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures contract — increased 2.42 million barrels.

Cushing has been filling since October as traders park crude oil there to take advantage of NYMEX futures being sold at a premium for later-dated delivery.

At 48.68 million barrels, stocks represent 57% of the hub’s nominal capacity of 85 million barrels, according to the EIA.

With stocks rising at an average weekly rate of 2.45 million barrels since the week ended January 30, analysts are speculating when Cushing will reach its upper limit.

Cushing could be full by Jun,e assuming actual capacity of 80 million barrels, oil economist Philip Verleger said in research note. That date could come in April using another industry estimate — 62 million barrels — of Cushing’s actual capacity, he said.

REFINED PRODUCTS STOCKS DRAW

U.S. distillate stocks decreased 2.7 million barrels the week ended February 20, EIA data showed, in line with analysts’ expectation of a 2.8 million-barrel decline.

At 124.7 million barrels, distillate stocks were 9.8% below the EIA five-year average for the same reporting period.

Cold weather across large portions of the U.S. has increased demand for distillate products, analysts said.

Combined stocks of low- and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fell the most on the U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC), down 3.1 million barrels to 26 million barrels. USAC stocks dropped from 18% to 6.5% of the five-year average.

USGC combined stocks declined 289,000 barrels to 36.9 million barrels, a 1.8% deficit to the five-year average.

U.S. Midwest (USMW) combined stocks increased 486,000 barrels, helping mitigate the drawdown. At 31.6 million barrels, the region’s inventory was 3.2% above the 2010-2014 average.

U.S. gasoline stocks shrank 3.1 million barrels to 240 million barrels. Analysts had expected a 1 million-barrel drawdown.

The blending component inventory fell 3.7 million barrels as finished gasoline production rose 105,000 b/d to 8.9 million b/d.

On the USAC — home to the New York Harbor-delivered NYMEX futures contract — gasoline stocks decreased 851,000 barrels to 69.6 million barrels, a 12.1% surplus to the five-year average.

USMW gasoline stocks fell 734,000 barrels to 53.6 million barrels, a 2.3% deficit to the five-year average. USGC gasoline stocks drew 272,000 barrels lower to 77.9 million barrels, a 2.9% surplus to the five-year average.

Source from : Platts

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