Oil market is set to weaken further when the factors that support the prices fade, according to Barclays. The fundamental oversupply in the market will weigh in once these factors ease, Barclays added.

As per a Barclays report, Oil markets are currently being supported by a few transient fundamental factors and shades of confidence. “We think the recent price action in crude oil is comparable, in terms of the fragility of the factors driving it as well as the confidence appearing in the market that the tide is turning.”

“While we expect Brent prices to recover eventually, with our 2016 forecast at 60/bbl, we do not expect a V shaped recovery from here,” Barclays added.

Prices will have to move lower first, to create a meaningful impact on supply reductions, before the market balances in the first half of the year.

“Within context of our expectation for sideways consolidation over the medium term, short-term risk is for a move towards the year-to-date lows

Erosion of nearby supports, such as the close below 50.85, the 21-day average, and subsequent break below the 48.20 range lows, confirm short-term downside bias helped further by the swing from bullish to bearish in daily momentum studies.

Barclays expect buyers to re-emerge near the 43.58 year-to-date lows. An unexpected break below 43.58 would force us to expect a deeper squeeze lower towards targets near 40. For now, though, oscillation around 50 is our base case scenario for the coming months.