China’s May iron ore prices forecast to remain rangebound from Apr: CISA

2015-05-08

China’s iron ore prices, especially imports, are forecast to remain rangebound from April, with little upside seen for prices to stage a recovery, China Iron and Steel Association said in its April monthly iron ore market report released this week.

“Iron ore prices lack the support for a sustainable recovery amid overcapacity, soft demand and low domestic steel prices,” CISA said in the report.

Iron ore supply has remained abundant so far this year. Even though some domestic and overseas iron ore mines with high production costs have halted operations amid falling prices, this failed to alleviate the supply glut in China’s iron ore market, CISA noted.

China’s domestic steel demand has been soft throughout the first quarter of 2015, as seen from the country’s crude steel output falling 1.7% year on year to about 200.1 million mt, while apparent crude steel consumption fell by a sharper 6.2% to 177 million mt, according to CISA data.

CISA’s 88 member mills posted a combined net loss of Yuan 987 million ($161.4 million) in Q1 2015, with nearly 50% of them in the red mainly due to low domestic steel prices.

The country’s domestic steel demand and steel production may improve during Q2, when steel consumption is seasonally higher. But even so, the expected recovery is likely to be modest, which would see demand for iron ore remaining weak, the report said.

In the midst of this, China’s domestic iron ore miners have either kept their prices unchanged or cut prices in April in a bid to ease rising stockpiles, according to market sources.

CISA’s latest monthly report noted that average domestic 62% FE iron ore concentrate prices fell 6.2%, or Yuan 36.28/dry mt, on month to Yuan 545.38/dmt, inclusive of 17% VAT, as of April 30, while the average 62% FE imported iron ore fines price recovered 10.3%, or $5.25/dmt, on month to $56.43/dmt CFR China.

Source from : Platts

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