Oil in the $20s? This pro doubts it

2015-12-30

As volatility in the oil market persists, investors debate whether the commodity has yet to hit a bottom and what can bring stability to the oversupplied market.

While many market watchers expected a production cut from Saudi Arabia during the December OPEC meeting, a lackluster season and increased production from other OPEC members prevented that, said James Cordier, founder of Optionssellers.com. Speaking to CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Monday, he said the summer driving season may influence the possibility of a supply cut from OPEC’s de facto leader by its next meeting in June.

“Simply a 5 percent production cut could give a, say, 20 percent rise in price; that might be a trade that the Saudis might be willing to do,” he said.

The comments came after Saudi Arabia announced it plans on shrinking its record state budget deficit with spending cuts and aims to raise revenues from sources other than oil, on Monday.

“Everyone does know the Saudis have to balance the market,” he noted.”We do expect prices to start moving higher [in] March or April, I would not be sure during the month of February.”

While many have made the case for $20 as the market has continued to see low oil prices, Cordier maintains that the global economy is not strong enough for oil prices to reach those lows.

“Oil in the $20s will likely not happen,” he said. “I don’t think we are going to see that this winter; we’re not going to see that next year.”

Source from : CNBC

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