Benchmark North Sea Forties crude will become lighter and sweeter this year, as crude output from newly started fields is added to the blend and the Buzzard field’s contribution eases.

Unstabilised Forties output will average 540,200 b/d in January, with Nexen’s 180,000 b/d Buzzard field contributing 30pc of the total, according to a revised forecast from operator of the Forties Pipeline System (FPS) BP. The firm forecast Forties output of 541,000 b/d at the end of November, but with a higher Buzzard contribution of 32pc.

Forties production in February will be 521,000 b/d with Buzzard contributing 30.3pc, compared with a forecast of 518,900 b/d and 32.1pc previously. Output in March is forecast at 507,500 b/d with Buzzard contributing 30pc, compared with 493,300 b/d and 32.1pc previously. And production in April will average 500,000 b/d with a Buzzard contribution of 28.7pc, BP said in its first forecast for that month.

The contribution from Buzzard — which produces a relatively sour crude — has moved steadily lower in recent years, averaging 44pc in 2013, 39pc in 2014, 37pc in 2015, and 33pc last year. The field’s contribution to the blend will average just under 30pc between January and April this year, according to BP. This has been driven in part by the start-up of new fields which have been tied-back to the existing FPS infrastructure.

At the end of November last year, London-listed upstream independent Enquest started up its Scolty-Crathes field, which feeds crude through the FPS. The site is expected to contribute 20,000 b/d to the Forties blend once it reaches peak production.

And in the first quarter of this year, Spanish oil company Repsol’s joint venture with its Chinese state-owned partner Sinopec, the recently renamed Repsol Sinopec Resources UK (RSRUK), expects increased production from its Montrose Area Redevelopment (MAR) project. The project includes the start-up of the Shaw and Cayley fields, which will feed crude production into the Forties blend.

RSRUK previously stated that the [MAR project](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/836870) would unlock 100mn bl of oil equivalent (boe) in recoverable resources and result in peak production of 36,000 b/d. The MAR project will play a significant role in the firm’s plan to increase its North Sea production from around 10,000 b/d currently to 60,000 b/d over the coming years.

Crude from the Buzzard field accounted for 31pc of the Forties blend in the week ending 8 January, falling marginally from 32pc in the last weeks of December.

A Buzzard contribution of 30pc to Forties results in a 39.8°API crude containing 0.67pc sulphur, a contribution of 35pc results in a Forties blend with a 39.2°API and 0.73pc sulphur grade, and a contribution of 25pc produces a crude with a 40.3°API and 0.61pc sulphur grade, according to BP.

Source: Argus