Dry Bulk FFA: Panamax On Upside Trend

2017-06-22

Panamax Index Weekly

Resistance – 8,312, 8,857, 12,478

Support – 6,281, 5,948, 5,122

Technically a dangerous area to add to fresh shorts on the Panamax index has proven to be correct. The oversold stochastic suggested downside momentum was slowing, resulting in prices closing back above the technical support.

Although we are now seeing bullish rejection candles from the support zone, and momentum remains oversold, the trend remains technically bearish at this point.

Near term technical resistance can be found at USD 8,312 with a more major resistance at USD 8,857. Any price rejection from these resistance levels would signal downside continuation targeting the recent low at USD 6,281.

Downside moves that fail to make fresh lows from here should have longer term shorts looking to tighten risk as it would suggest buy side appetite is increasing.

Panamax Q3 17 Daily

Resistance – 9,272, 9,685, 11,144

Support –8,576, 8,068, 7,377

On the last report we highlighted that the fresh lows keeping the trend bearish, however the oversold momentum and the 200 day MA indicated we were on technical support levels, suggesting a technical bounce, which the market has produced.

Technical resistance has been broken and we have now produced higher lows. Short term buyers from the support will be happy to see that secondary resistance has acted as a support, resulting in a higher market low and suggesting upside continuation in the form of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Note breakout confirmation still needed.

Market sellers should now wait for a lower high before looking to enter for from the sell side as the technical has produced a higher low indicating the potential for further upside pricing.

Panamax Cal 18 Daily

Resistance – 8,750, 8,923, 9,164

Support – 8,568, 8,340, 8,000

Last week we were looking for a counter trend move within the bearish trend, due to the oversold technical. This has resulted in an upside swing that is now in the technical resistance zone between USD 8,600 – USD 8,900.

The higher low suggests upside continuation. However a note of caution as the stochastic is now overbought, at this point this is not a reason to sell but market longs should be keeping tight risk. A close below the USD 8,568 level would suggest that market sellers are gaining control, though a lower high is needed to confirm this.

Technically overbought, and has the potential to pull back to the USD 8,568 support or lower. Market sellers should wait for confirmation to sell as the technical is starting to show an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Not complete and could fail, but until it does it is not a sellers’ market. Neckline confirmation is at USD 8,750.

Panamax Q3 V Cal 18 Daily

Resistance– – 298, 344, 432

Support – 10, (-272), (-621)

The support zone held last week with technical resistance being broken. The higher low found support on the 8 period EMA and we are currently making a fresh high.

Like the Cal 18 there is an inverse head and shoulders forming, though this is not complete. The overbought momentum is a concern, however a neckline breakout that goes on to act as support would override the momentum indicator.

Neckline resistance is at USD 298, and this is a key level going forward.

Market sellers should wait for either a neckline failure (short term sell signal) or a lower high.

Source: FIS

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