In the first nine months of this year, 299 panamax vessels were delivered. In comparison, 274 panamax vessels were delivered during all of 2011. Taking into account vessel demolition (79 panamax vessels were scrapped during the first nine months of this year), the panamax fleet has grown by a net addition of 220 vessels during the first nine months of the year. Such robust fleet growth has been a large reason why panamax rates remain under great pressure, even though demand for panamax vessels has stayed firm.

In comparison, the capesize fleet has grown by a net addition of only 120 vessels during the first nine months of the year (188 capesize vessels have been delivered while 68 have been scrapped). The handymax fleet has grown by a net addition of 187 vessels during the first nine months of the year (257 handymax vessels have been delivered while 70 have been scrapped). The handysize fleet has grown by a net addition of 98 vessels during the first nine months of the year (245 handysize vessels have been delivered while 147 have been scrapped).

For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at approximately 260 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at approximately 90 vessels. The orderbook for handymax vessels stands at approximately 155 vessels, while the orderbook for handysize vessels stands at approximately 145 vessels. Panamax rates remain likely to come under even more pressure in 2013.

In the near term, a large amount of panamax vessels are likely to be chartered as Chinese coal port stockpiles remain very low, but panamax rates will be held back by significant vessel oversupply. Coal stockpiles at Qinhuangdao, China’s largest coal port, currently stand at just 5.5 million tons, which is an extremely low amount. Officials strive to keep at least 7 million tons of coal at Qinhuangdao at all times, as Qinhuangdao is the loading port for approximately 40% of China’s coastal coal shipments. Going forward, a large amount of panamax vessels are likely to continue to be chartered to haul coal to China during the next few weeks, but prospects for panamax rates remain troubling