Weak Sentiment and Decline in Overall Dry Bulk Rates

2012-11-06

Dry bulk rates came under pressure across the board last week, even though spot chartering activity remained firm. An impressive 121 dry bulk vessels were chartered in the spot market last week, which was 1 more than chartered during the previous week. Nevertheless, spot rates have declined. Capesize rates are now averaging $15,409/day, a decline of $1,433 (-9%) from a week ago. Panamax rates are averaging $6,133/day, a decline of $291 (-5%). Supramax rates are averaging $6,992/day, a decline of $312 (-4%). Handysize rates are averaging $6,223/day, a decline of $174 (-3%).

Chinese demand for imported iron ore cargoes, in particular, has remained quite firm, as Chinese iron ore port stockpiles have fallen to their lowest level since June 2011. 88.5mt of iron ore is now stockpiled at Chinese ports, which is 2.3mt (-3%) less than a week ago. China has been purchasing more iron ore but this has not been enough to help capesize rates find support.

Dry bulk rates have come under pressure due to a fall in sentiment and an ongoing oversupply of available vessels. Despite October’s rebound in capesize rates, sentiment in the capesize market in particular has still turned negative. Capesize rates began October averaging $8,426/day and rose to $18,388/day in late October. Despite this important gain (which showed that the capesize market is re-entering a period when availability can become tight very quickly), sentiment has turned negative.

Negative sentiment existing in the entire dry bulk market is quite evident as dry bulk newbuilding orders have remained very low. Only 12 new dry bulk vessels were ordered in October. This was slightly below the 15 vessels ordered in September but well below this year’s peak of 36 dry bulk vessels ordered in August. The 12 dry bulk vessels ordered in October marks this year’s low, and is the lowest amount ordered since 2009 Period chartering activity has also been very low recently, with many charterers showing a lack of interest in locking in long-term rates.

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