Positive Developments in the Dry Bulk Market

2012-11-20

Approximately 85.3 million tons of iron ore is now stockpiled at Chinese ports, which is 2 million tons (-2%) less than a week ago. Chinese iron ore port stockpiles have been on the decline since the end of September and have fallen to their lowest level since June 2011. The ongoing decline in Chinese iron ore port stockpiles remains an encouraging development for the capesize market and seaborne iron ore trade.

In addition, sentiment in the dry bulk market has improved. While only 1 period fixture came to the market during the Week Ending November 9, last week saw 8 period fixtures surface. Sentiment is returning to a more rational level, spot freight rates for most vessel classes have improved, and charterers are now showing more of an interest in locking in long-term rates.

In the dry bulk spot market, capesize rates are now averaging $16,411/day, which is an increase of $1,857 (13%) from a week ago. Panamax rates are averaging $7,077/day, an increase of $1,289 (22%). Supramax rates are averaging $7,046/day, an increase of $259 (4%). Handysize rates are averaging $5,992/day, a decrease of $29.

Overall dry bulk fleet growth has also continued to slow which is a very positive development. Approximately 75 dry bulj vessels were delivered in October, a moderate decline from the 85 dry bulk vessels delivered in September. October saw the delivery of 23 handysize vessels, 18 handymax vessels, 24 panamax vessels, and 10 capesize vessels. In comparison, September saw the delivery of 19 handysize vessels, 26 handymax vessels, 24 panamax vessels, and 16 capesize vessels.

Approximately 53 dry bulk vessels were demolished in October, on par with the 52 dry bulk vessels demolished in September. October saw the demolition of 23 handysize vessels, 11 handymax vessels, 13 panamax vessels, and 6 capesize vessels. In comparison, September saw the demolition of 18 handysize vessels, 7 handymax vessels, 17 panamax vessels, and 10 capesize vessels

The dry bulk fleet grew by a net addition of only 22 vessels in October. This is the lowest growth to occur over two years. In comparison, the dry bulk fleet grew by an average net addition of 70 vessels each month in 2011 and by a record 121 vessels in June 2012. I t remains very encouraging that dry bulk fleet growth has slowed. During the last three months, the dry bulk fleet has grown by an average net addition of only 30 vessels.

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