Weakness in Atlantic Basin and Capesize Rates

2012-12-18

Dry bulk freight rates came under additional pressure last week due to a moderate decline in overall spot chartering activity. A total of only 98 dry bulk vessels were chartered in the spot market last week. This was 13 less than were chartered during the previous week.

In addition, dry bulk spot chartering activity has remained low in the Atlantic basin. The Atlantic basin was the strength of the capesize market in November, but activity in this basin has remained weak for three consecutive weeks. During the last three weeks, a total of only 8 vessels have been chartered to haul iron ore from Brazil. In comparison, the three weeks prior saw a total of 29 vessels chartered to haul iron ore from Brazil.

In China, demand for imported iron ore and thermal coal cargoes has remained moderate. 22 vessels were chartered to haul iron ore to China last week, 4 less than the previous week and 3 less than the trailing four week average. Chinese demand for imported iron ore has remained at a moderate level due to the continued decline in iron ore port stockpiles. Approximately 75.9 million tons of iron ore is stockpiled at Chinese ports, 1.9 million tons (-2%) less than a week ago. Stockpiles have been falling since the end of September and are at their lowest level since January 2011.

Chinese demand for imported thermal coal cargoes has also remained moderate, due to peak season winter electricity demand. 10 vessels were chartered to haul thermal coal to China last week, 1 less than the previous week but on par with the trailing four week average. Coal stockpiles at Qinhuangdao, China’s largest coal port, now stand at at 6.7 million tons which is still below the critical 7 million ton level that officials strive to maintain at all times. This is positive for the dry bulk market, as more thermal coal need to be exported to China.

Capesize rates are now averaging $6,633/day, a decrease of $5,433 (-45%) from a week ago. Panamax rates are now averaging $6,660/day, a decrease of $781 (-11%). Supramax rates are averaging $7,785/day, a decrease of $162 (-2%). Handysize rates are averaging $6,543/day, a decrease of $62 (-1%). During the upcoming week, activity is expected to remain relatively low due to the approach of the Christmas holiday and new year.

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