Recent strength in the US soybean and coarse grain markets have caused US farmers to favor soybean and coarse grain planting over planting wheat. As a result, US soybean and coarse grain production are expected to increase by large amounts during the current 2013/14 grain trade marketing year. The United States‘ ongoing recovery from drought is also a significant factor behind the anticipated increase in US soybean and coarse grain production.

With US soybean and coarse grain production poised to increase, so too will US soybean and coarse grain exports. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects US soybean production will total approximately 92.3 million tons in 2013/14. This is 10.2 million tons (13%) more than was harvested in 2012/13. US soybean exports are expected to total 39.5 million tons in 2013/14, 2.8 million tons (8%) more than was exported during 2012/13. Soybean consumption in the United States is expected to rise moderately this year, but US soybean exports are nevertheless expected to increase by a large amount. In addition, the United States is expected to also be able to stockpile more soybeans.

US coarse grain exports are also expected to rise due to a very large increase in coarse grain production. The USDA expects US coarse grain production will total approximately 376 million tons in 2013/14. This is 90 million tons (31%) more than was harvested in 2012/13. US coarse grain exports are expected to total 37.1 million tons in 2013/14, 15.8 million tons (74%) more than was exported in 2012/13. Domestic coarse grain consumption in the United States is expected to increase this year as well, but the anticipated surge in production will be more than enough to offset the rise in consumption. In addition, the increase in production will allow US coarse grain stockpiles to also finish the year at a level much higher than a year ago.

US wheat exports are expected to decline however. The USDA expects that US wheat exports will total approximately 25.2 million tons in 2013/14. This is 2.7 million tons (-10%) less than was exported during 2012/13. The decline in US wheat exports is expected to occur due to an anticipated decrease in US wheat production. The US wheat crop is expected to total only approximately 56 million tons in 2013/14, 5.8 million tons (-9%) less than was produced in 2012/13. Less wheat is expected to be produced as American farmers are favoring soybean and coarse grain planting.