The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its latest forecast for 2013/14 global grain trade. The USDA now predicts that 326.8 million tons of grain will be exported worldwide during the current 2013/14 grain trade marketing year. This is 6.1 million tons (2%) more than the USDA previously predicted in July. Compared with the 298.6 million tons of grain estimated to have been exported globally during 2012/13, 2013/14 grain trade is projected to increase year-on-year by 29.2 million tons (9%).

The global grain trade forecast has been raised mostly due to loftier expectations for wheat exports from the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The USDA now expects that FSU wheat production will total 107 million tons in the current 2013/14 marketing year. This is 29.8 million tons (39%) more than was produced in 2012/13. 2013/14 FSU wheat production is expected to be much higher than 2012/13 production due to the drought that occurred in the Former Soviet Union last year.

FSU wheat exports, not surprisingly, are expected to increase due to the significant increase in wheat production. The USDA now expects that FSU wheat exports will total 37.4 million tons in 2013/14. This is 11.2 million tons (43%) more than is estimated to have been exported during 2012/13. FSU wheat exports traditionally increase throughout the third quarter of every year and normally peak around September.

The increase in FSU wheat cargoes coming to the market is expected to help the panamax and supramax markets. Most of the wheat exported from the Former Soviet Union is shipped to buyers in the Middle East, Africa, and Turkey. The majority of FSU wheat cargoes are carried on panamax and supramax vessels.