The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its latest forecast for 2013/14 global grain trade. The USDA now predicts that 333.9 million tons of grain will be exported worldwide during the current 2013/14 grain trade marketing year. This is 7.1 million tons (2%) more than it predicted in its previous global grain trade forecast released in September.

Compared with the 295.4 million tons of grain estimated to have been exported during last year’s 2012/13 grain trade marketing year, 2013/14 global grain trade is projected to increase by 38.5 million tons (13%). This is a postive development for the dry bulk shipping market, and helps all four dry bulk vessel classes. In particular, the panamax and supramax stand to benefit the most.

This month’s global grain trade forecast from the USDA has been raised by a moderate amount from the previous forecast released in September due in large part to better expectations for global coarse grain exports. The USDA now expects that global coarse grain exports during 2013/14 will total 140.9 million tons, 7.8 million tons (6%) more than it predicted in its previous forecast. In comparison, global coarse grain exports totaled 133.4 million tons during 2012/13.

The most significant change in the coarse grain forecast is for exports from the United States. US coarse grain production is now expected to total approximately 371.7 million tons during 2013/14, 3.9 million tons (1%) more than was forecast in September. The increase in production has contributed to the forecast for US coarse grain exports being raised. 2013/14 US coarse grain exports are now expected to total 40.4 million tons, 4.9 million tons (14%) more than was forecast in September.

Compared with the 20.7 million tons of coarse grain exported from the United States during 2012/13, 2013/14 US coarse grain exports are expected to increase by 19.7 million tons (95%). US coarse grain production and exports were under significant pressure last year due to the severe drought that ravaged much of the United States. The United States is no longer suffering from drought, which is allowing much more US coarse grain cargoes to come the dry bulk market.