Affect of Tropical Storm Doksuri

热带风暴杜苏芮影响

By the end of the weekend, Tropical Storm Doksuri will have ended up bringing a very large amount of rainfall to southern China. For the dry bulk shipping market and thermal coal market, this is quite  significant because southern China is where the majority of China\'s hydropower is produced. As hydropower production increases, demand for thermal coal decreases.

截止到这周末，热带风暴杜苏芮将会给中国南部带来强降雨。这对干散货航运市场和热能煤市场意义重大，因为中国水利发电的大部地区集中在中国南部。由于发电量增加，对热能煤的需求就相应的下降。

As it turns out, southern China has recently received a very large amount of rain. Two weeks ago, the vast majority of southern China received at least 85 millimeters of rain, with some areas receiving as much as of 150 millimeters of rain. This was an extremely large amount. In comparison, China received an average of   68.5 millimeters of rainfall in May.

结果中国南方目前已将出现强降雨量。两周前，中国南部绝大多数地区的降雨量为85毫升，一些地区的降雨量甚至达到了150毫升。这个数值是非常大的。相比较，五月份全国均降雨量为65.6毫升。

Southern China received a large amount of rain last week, and more over the weekend due to Tropical Storm Doksuri (data is still pending for exact rainfall totals). The recent period of heavy rain will lead to a further rise in Chinese hydropower  production, which will put even more pressure on near-term Chinese thermal coal demand.

上周中国南部受到强降雨袭击，周末降雨量更大因为受到热带风暴杜苏芮的影响（具体降雨总量目前还未确定）。这一阶段的降雨导致中国水利发电量大幅增加，这就对近期中国热能煤的需求带来压力。

Chinese hydropower output totaled 66.5 billion kilowatt hours in May, which was 22.7 billion kilowatt hours (52%) more than produced in April and 15.1 billion kilowatt hours (29%) more than produced in May 2011. For June,  hydropower  production will likely end up totaling between 70 to 80 billion kilowatt hours. In July, hydropower production stands a good chance of setting a new record. The current record is 82.7 billion kilowatt hours produced in July 2010.

五月份中国水利发电输出总共为665亿千瓦时，比四月份高出227亿千瓦时，约为52%，比2011年5月份高出151亿千瓦时，约为29%。6月份，水利发电预计总量约为700-800亿千瓦时。7月份，水利发电有望开创新纪录。目前的记录保持在2010年的7鱼粉为827亿千瓦时。

Going forward, Chinese thermal coal demand is poised to stay low in the near term partially due to the ongoing surge in Chinese hydropower production. Tropical Storm Doksuri has only added to the robust amount of rainfall that southern China continues to receive.

中国热能煤的需求将会在近期持续走低因为中国水利发电量的激增。热带风暴杜苏芮也只是使得中国南方原本的降雨量增加。