【独家栏目】

Dry bulk freight rates found mixed results again last week. Capesize rates were able to increase by 4% week-on-week, but this was simply due to owners continuing to idle and take more of their Capes out of the market. Panamax rates, however decreased 19% week-on-week.

上周干散货船运价率喜忧参半。海峡型船运价率每周能够增加4%，但这仅仅是因为船东持续空转，把更多的海峡型船带出市场。相较而言，巴拿马运价率每周下降19%。

Going forward, average capesize rates are likely to continue to range between $3,000 and $8,000/day for at least the next few months. The $3,000/day mark currently stands as roughly the level where owners have been taking a very large amount of their vessels out of the chartering market, and $8,000/day currently stands as roughly the level where capesize owners chose to return to the market.

至少在未来四个月内，海峡型船的平均运价率可能继续保持在每天$3,000-$8,000。目前$3,000/天的价格大致标志着船东把大量的船舶带出租赁市场后的价格水平，而$8,000/天标志着海峡型船东选择重回市场后的水平。

Hope for the capesize market is around the corner, though, and capesize rates are likely to find a moderate amount of support by this time next year. The capesize orderbook for 2013 pales into comparison to recent years’ delivery totals. Approximately 215 capesize vessels were delivered in 2010, 260 were delivered in 2011, and 250 are expected to ultimately be delivered by the end of this year. Only roughly 90 capesize vessels are expected to be delivered next year.

海峡型船舶市场回暖指日可待。明年此时的海峡型船运价率将会得到适当的支持。2013海岬型船新船订单与近几年的交付总量相比，就相形见绌了。约215艘海岬型船于2010年交付，2011年交付260艘，250艘预计最终将在今年年底交付。只有大约90艘海岬型船预计将于明年交付使用。

The panamax market, though, is likely to become the most oversupplied dry bulk vessel class next year. Approximately 170 panamax vessels were delivered in 2010, 270 were delivered in 2011, and 370 are expected to ultimately be delivered by the end of this year. An additional 260 panamax vessels are expected to be delivered next year.

不过明年巴拿马型船市场很可能成为最供大于求的干散货船型市场。约170艘巴拿马型船于2010年交付，270艘在2011年交付，370艘预计最终将在今年年底交付。 附加的260艘巴拿马型船预计将于明年交付使用。