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【周评】散杂货船市场上的船队明显扩张

85 dry bulk vessels were delivered in September, moderately above the 75 dry bulk vessels delivered in August. September saw the delivery of 19 handysize vessels, 26 handymax vessels, 24 panamax vessels, and 16 capesize vessels. In comparison, August saw the delivery of 16 handysize vessels, 19 handymax vessels, 32 panamax vessels, and 8 capesize vessels.

九月共发运85艘干散货船,八月发运干散货船逾75艘。九月发出19艘小轻便型散船,26艘大轻便型散船,24艘巴拿马型散货船和16艘好望角型散船。相较之下,八月发出16艘小轻便型散船,19艘大轻便型散船,32艘巴拿马型散货船和8艘好望角型散船。

51 dry bulk vessels were demolished in September, moderately above the 40 dry bulk vessels demolished in August. September saw the demolition of 18 handysize vessels, 7 handymax vessels, 17 panamax vessels, and 10 capesize vessels. In comparison, August saw the demolition of 18 handysize vessels, 9 handymax vessels, 5 panamax vessels, and 8 capesize vessels.

9月共计拆毁51艘干散货船,8月拆毁干散货船逾40艘。在9月,18艘小轻便型散船、7艘小轻便型散船、17艘巴拿马型散船和10艘好望角型散船分别被拆除。相比之下,8月共计拆毁18艘小轻便型散船、9艘小轻便型散船、5艘巴拿马型散船和8艘好望角型散船。

The overall dry bulk fleet grew by a net addition of only 33 vessels in September. This is a very low amount and is on par with the net addition of 35 vessels added to the dry bulk fleet in August. In comparison, the dry bulk fleet grew by a net addition of 78 vessels in July, and by a record 121 vessels in June. It is encouraging for the overall dry bulk market that fleet growth has continued to slow.

总体而言,九月干散货船仅净增33艘。这个数量较低,与8月干散货船净增加35辆持平。相较之下,7月干散货船净增78艘,6月记录净增121艘。干散货市场船队整体增长有望持续放缓。

Although overall fleet growth in the dry bulk market has slowed, growth in the handymax market has been significant and has managed to exceed the combined growth of all other dry bulk vessel classes in September. The handymax fleet grew by a net addition of 19 vessels in September. In comparison, the capesize, panamax, and handysize fleets grew by a combined total of only 14 vessels.

虽然干散货市场船队整体扩张已经放缓,大轻便型散船市场增长仍旧明显并超越了9月所有其他干散货船级共同增长水平。大轻便型散船9月净增19艘。相较而言,好望角型、巴拿马型和小轻便型散船共仅增长14艘。

Significant handymax fleet growth has been a large factor behind the decline in handymax rates that has occurred during the last several weeks. A decrease in global grain production (due to various droughts world-wide) has also been a factor. 2012/13 global grain trade is now expected to total only 282.74 million tons, which is a decline of 47.57mt (-14%) from 330.31mt was exported in 2011/12. A lack of Indian iron ore cargoes coming to the market (due to ongoing iron ore mining and exports bans in India) also continues to put pressure on the handymax market.

大轻便型散船明显增长很大程度是由于过去数周大轻便型散船吨级降低。全球谷物生产量下滑(因世界范围内各种旱灾所致)也是原因之一。2012-2013年全球谷物贸易成交量仅达282,740,000吨,从2011-2012年出口总量的330,310,000吨跌至47,570,000吨(下降了14%)。市场稀缺印度铁矿货物(由于目前铁矿开采和印度出口禁令所致)依然给大轻便型散船市场造成了压力。

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Jeffrey Landsberg
XXXXXXX,中国船舶工业经济研究中心副主任,对船舶工业经济运行质量,船舶工业能耗、中国造船能力发展、钢价波动、汇率变化等热点问题有广泛研究。

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